Global GDP Growth Increasingly Important Driver of IC Market Growth
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Global GDP Growth Increasingly Important Driver of IC Market Growth

　　The 2019-2023 correlation coefficient forecast to reach 0.93, up from 0.86 from 2010-2018.　　IC Insights is in the process of completing its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published later this month.  Among the semiconductor industry data included in the new 500-page report is an analysis of the correlation between IC market growth and global GDP growth.　　Figure 1 depicts the increasingly close correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth through 2018, as well as IC Insights’ forecast through 2023.Figure 1　　Over the 2010-2018 timeframe, the correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth was 0.86 (0.91 excluding memory in 2017 and 2018), a strong figure given that a perfect positive correlation is 1.0.  In the three decades previous to this timeperiod, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation (i.e., essentially no correlation) of -0.10 in the 1990s.　　IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrates the maturing of the industry and has helped foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.  Another reason for a better correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth is the continued movement to a more consumer driven IC market.  IC Insights believes that 20 years ago, about 60% of the IC market was driven by business applications and 40% by consumer applications with those percentages being reversed today.  As a result, with a more consumer-oriented environment driving electronic system sales, and in turn IC market growth, the health of the worldwide economy is increasingly important in gauging IC market trends.
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Release time：2019-01-22 00:00 reading：1392 Continue reading>>
Quarterly Year-over-Year Growth Slows Substantially for IC Market
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Quarterly Year-over-Year Growth Slows Substantially for IC Market

Analysis shows decline from 23% year-over-year growth in 1Q18 to 6% forecast for 4Q18.IC Insights’ November Update to The 2018 McClean Report will present an in-depth analysis and detailed five-year forecast for the IC Industry, which is expected to enter a period of cyclical “cooling” after an extended period of very strong growth.Figure 1 illustrates the worldwide quarterly year-over-year IC market increases from 1Q through 3Q and IC Insights’ forecast for 4Q of this year.  As shown, the first half of 2018 started out with strong quarterly year-over-year growth for the IC market.  However, 3Q year-over-year IC market growth dropped to 14%.  Moreover, with the softening of the memory market, IC Insights projects that year-over-year IC market growth in 4Q will be only 6%.Figure 1Third quarter sequential growth confirms the slowing year-over-year trend. In 2017, 3Q/2Q IC market growth was 11%.  This year, 3Q/2Q growth slowed to a 6% increase (the same rate as the long term average).  As mentioned, the softening memory market has started to become a “headwind” on total IC market growth.  It is interesting that in 2017, the 3Q/2Q memory market growth rate was a very strong 18%.  In contrast, the 3Q/2Q memory market increase in 2018 was 8%, less than half of last year’s rate.
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Release time：2018-11-02 00:00 reading：1128 Continue reading>>
Seven IC products to outpace total 16% <span style='color:red'>IC market</span> growth in 2018
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Seven IC products to outpace total 16% IC market growth in 2018

In its Mid-Year Update to the 2018 McClean Report, IC Insights updated its forecast of sales growth for each of the 33 major IC product categories defined by WSTS (Figure 1).  IC Insights now projects that seven product categories will exceed the 16% growth rate expected from the total IC market this year. For the second consecutive year, the DRAM market is forecast to top all IC product segments with 39% growth. Overall, 13 product categories are forecast to experience double-digit growth and 28 total IC product categories are expected to post positive growth this year, down slightly from 29 segments in 2017.Rising average selling prices for DRAM continued to boost the DRAM market through the first half of the year and into August.  However, IC Insights believes the DRAM ASP (and subsequent market growth) is at or near its peak, as a big rise in DRAM capital expenditures for planned capacity upgrades and expansions is likely put the brakes on steep market growth beginning in 2019.In second place with 29% growth is the Automotive—Special-Purpose Logic market, which is being lifted by the growing number of onboard electronic systems now found on new cars. Backup cameras, blind-spot (lane-departure) detectors, and other “intelligent” systems are mandated or are being added across all new vehicles—entry level to luxury—and are expected to contribute to the semiconductor content per new car growing to more than $540 per vehicle in 2018.Wireless Comm—Application-Specific Analog is forecast to grow 23% in 2018, as the world becomes increasingly dependent on the Internet and demand for wireless connectivity continues to rise. Similarly, demand for medical/health electronics systems connectivity using the Internet will help the market for Industrial/Other Application-Specific Analog outpace total IC market growth in 2018.Among the seven categories showing better than total IC market growth this year, three are forecast to be among the largest of all IC product categories in terms of dollar volume. DRAM (#1 with $101.6 billion in sales), NAND Flash (#2 with $62.6 billion), Computer and Peripherals—Special Purpose Logic (#4 with $27.6 billion) prove that big markets can still achieve exceptional percentage growth.
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Release time：2018-09-19 00:00 reading：1049 Continue reading>>
Global GDP Impact on Worldwide IC Market Growth Forecast to Rise
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Global GDP Impact on Worldwide IC Market Growth Forecast to Rise

In its recently released Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2018, IC Insights forecasts that the 2018-2022 global GDP and IC market correlation coefficient will reach 0.95, up from 0.88 in the 2010-2017 timeperiod.  IC Insights depicts the increasingly close correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth through 2017, as well as its forecast through 2022, in Figure 1.As shown, over the 2010-2017 timeframe, the correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth was 0.88, a strong figure given that a perfect correlation is 1.0.  In the three decades previous to this timeperiod, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation (i.e., essentially no correlation) of -0.10 in the 1990s.IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrate the maturing of the industry that is helping foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.  Other factors include the strong movement to the fab-lite business model and a declining capex as a percent of sales ratio, all trends that are indicative of dramatic changes to the semiconductor industry that are likely to lead to less volatile market cycles over the long term.In 2017, IC industry growth was greatly influenced by the “Capacity/Capital Spending Cycle Model” as the DRAM and NAND flash markets surged and served to drive total IC industry growth of 25%.  It would initially appear that the strong correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and total IC market growth that had been evident from 2010 through 2016 had disappeared in 2017.  However, IC Insights does not believe that is the case.When excluding the DRAM and NAND flash segments from the IC market in 2017, the remainder of the IC market displayed an 11% increase, which closely correlates to what would be expected given a worldwide GDP increase from 2.4% in 2016 to 3.1% in 2017.  Moreover, the three-point decline in the total IC market growth rate forecast for 2018, when excluding DRAM and NAND flash (from 11% in 2017 to 8% in 2018), is expected to mirror the slight decline expected for worldwide GDP growth this year as compared to last year.  Thus, excluding the amazing surge for the DRAM and NAND flash markets in 2017 and 2018, IC Insights believes that the trend toward an increasingly close correlation between total IC market growth and worldwide GDP growth is still largely intact.Figure 1
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Release time：2018-08-01 00:00 reading：1046 Continue reading>>
Automotive IC Market on Pace for Third Consecutive Record Growth Year
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Automotive IC Market on Pace for Third Consecutive Record Growth Year

18.5% forecast increase in 2018 driven by systems monitoring and control, safety, ADAS, convenience, and growth of autonomous driving. Continued rise of memory ASP adds to growth.Consumer demand and government mandates for electronic systems that improve vehicle performance, that add comfort and convenience, and that warn, detect, and take corrective measures to keep drivers safe and alert are being added to new cars each year. This system growth, along with rising prices for memory components within them, are expected to raise the automotive IC market 18.5% this year to a new record high of $32.3 billion, surpassing the previous record of $27.2 billion set last year (Figure 1), according to IC Insights’ soon to be released Update to the IC Market Drivers 2018 report.  If the forecast holds, it would mark the third consecutive year of double-digit growth for the automotive IC market.Figure 1Over the past several years, the global automotive IC market has experienced some extraordinary swings in growth. After increasing 11.5% in 2014, the automotive IC market declined 2.5% in 2015, but then rebounded with solid 10.6% growth in 2016.  It is worth noting that the sales decline experienced in 2015 was primarily the result of falling ASPs across all the key automotive IC product categories—microcontrollers, analog ICs, DRAM, flash, and general- and special-purpose logic ICs, which offset steady unit growth for automotive ICs that year.IC Insights’ recently updated automotive IC market forecast shows the automotive IC market growing to $43.6 billion in 2021, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2017 to 2021, highest among the six major end-use applications (Figure 2).Figure 2Collectively, automotive ICs are forecast to account for only about 7.5% of the total IC market in 2018, although that share is forecast to increase to 9.3% in 2021.  Analog ICs—both general-purpose analog and application-specific automotive analog—are expected to account for 45% of the 2018 automotive IC market, with MCUs capturing 23% share. There are many suppliers of automotive analog devices but a rash of acquisitions among them in recent years has reduced the number of larger manufacturers.  Some of the acquisitions that have impacted the automotive analog market include NXP, which acquired Freescale in 2015 and is now itself in the process of being acquired by Qualcomm; Analog Devices, which acquired Linear Technology in March 2017; and Renesas, which acquired Intersil.Report Details: IC Market Drivers 2018IC Market Drivers 2018—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits examines the largest, existing system opportunities for ICs and evaluates the potential of new applications that are expected to help fuel the market for ICs.IC Market Drivers is divided into two parts.  Part 1 provides a detailed forecast of the IC industry by system type, by region, and by IC product type through 2021.  In Part 2, the IC Market Drivers report examines and evaluates key existing and emerging end-use applications that will support and propel the IC industry through 2021.  Some of these applications include the automotive market, smartphones, Internet of Things, personal/mobile computing (including tablets), medical and health systems, and a review of many applications to watch like virtual reality, robotics, and drones, that may potentially provide significant opportunity for IC suppliers later this decade.  The 2018 IC Market Drivers report is priced at $3,690 for an individual-user license and $6,790 for a multi-user corporate license.
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Release time：2018-06-04 00:00 reading：1128 Continue reading>>
IC Insights Raises 2018 IC Market Forecast from 8% to 15%
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IC Insights Raises 2018 IC Market Forecast from 8% to 15%

　　IC Insights’ latest market, unit, and average selling price forecasts for 33 major IC product segments for 2018 through 2022 is included in the March Update to the 2018 McClean Report (MR18).  The Update also includes an analysis of the major semiconductor suppliers’ capital spending plans for this year.　　The biggest adjustments to the original MR18 IC market forecasts were to the memory market; specifically the DRAM and NAND flash segments.  The DRAM and NAND flash memory market growth forecasts for 2018 have been adjusted upward to 37% for DRAM (13% shown in MR18) and 17% for NAND flash (10% shown in MR18).　　The big increase in the DRAM market forecast for 2018 is primarily due to a much stronger ASP expected for this year than was originally forecast.  IC Insights now forecasts that the DRAM ASP will register a 36% jump in 2018 as compared to 2017, when the DRAM ASP surged by an amazing 81%.  Moreover, the NAND flash ASP is forecast to increase 10% this year, after jumping by 45% in 2017.  In contrast to strong DRAM and NAND flash ASP increases, 2018 unit volume growth for these product segments is expected to be up only 1% and 6%, respectively.　　At $99.6 billion, the DRAM market is forecast to be by far the largest single product category in the IC industry in 2018, exceeding the expected NAND flash market ($62.1 billion) by $37.5 billion.  Figure 1 shows that the DRAM market has provided a significant tailwind or headwind for total worldwide IC market growth in four out of the last five years.　　The DRAM market dropped by 8% in 2016, spurred by a 12% decline in ASP, and the DRAM segment became a headwind to worldwide IC market growth that year instead of the tailwind it had been in 2013 and 2014.  As shown, the DRAM market shaved two percentage points off of total IC industry growth in 2016.  In contrast, the DRAM segment boosted total IC market growth last year by nine percentage points.  For 2018, the expected five point positive impact of the DRAM market on total IC market growth is forecast to be much less significant than it was in 2017.FIgure 1
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Release time：2018-03-15 00:00 reading：1347 Continue reading>>
Analog IC Market Forecast With Strongest Annual Growth Through 2022
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Analog IC Market Forecast With Strongest Annual Growth Through 2022

　　Sales of analog ICs are expected to show the strongest growth rate among major integrated circuit market categories during the next five years,according to IC Insights’new 2018 McClean Report,which becomes available this month.The McClean Report forecasts that revenues for analog products—including both general purpose and application-specific devices—will increase by a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 6.6%to$74.8 billion in 2022 from$54.5 billion in 2017.　　The 2018 McClean Report separates the total IC market into four major product categories:analog,logic,memory,and microcomponents.Figure 1 shows the forecasted 2017-2022 CAGRs of these product categories compared to the projected total IC market annual growth rate of 5.1%during the five-year period.　　Analog ICs,the fastest growing major product category in the forecast,are a necessity within both very advanced systems and low-budget applications.Components like power management analog devices help regulate power usage to keep devices running cooler and ultimately to help extend battery life in cellphones and other mobile/battery operated systems.The power management market is forecast to grow 8%in 2018 after increasing 12%in 2017.　　In 2018,the automotive—application-specific analog market is forecast to increase 15%to be the fastest growing analog IC category,and the third-fastest growing of 33 IC product categories classified by WSTS.The growth of autonomous and electric vehicles and more electronic systems on board all new cars are expected to keep demand robust for automotive analog devices.　　Communications and consumer applications continue to represent the biggest end-use applications for signal conversion analog ICs.Signal conversion components(data converters,mixed-signal devices,etc.)are forecast to continue on fast-track growth with double-digit sales gains expected in three of the next five years.　　After an extraordinary 58%sales spike in 2017,the memory market is forecast to return to more“normal”growth through the forecast.The memory market is forecast to increase by a CAGR of 5.2%through 2022.New capacity for flash memory and,to a lesser extent for DRAM,should bring some relief from fast-rising ASPs and result in better supply-demand balance for these devices to support newer applications such as enterprise solid-state drives(SSDs),augmented and virtual reality,graphics,artificial intelligence,and other complex,real-time workload functions.　　Meanwhile,growth in the microcomponent market(forecast CAGR of 3.9%)has cooled significantly due to weak shipments of standard PCs(desktops and notebooks).Tablet sales have also slowed and weighed down total microcomponent sales.With the exception of the 32-bit MCU market,annual sales gains in most microcomponent segments are forecast to remain in the low-to mid single digit range through 2022.　　IC Insights forecasts the total IC market will increase by a CAGR of 5.1%from 2017-2022.Following the 22%increase in 2017,the total IC market is forecast to grow 8%in 2018 to$393.9 billion and then continue on an upward trend to reach$466.8 billion in 2022,the final year of the forecast.
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Release time：2018-01-18 00:00 reading：1236 Continue reading>>
Global IC Market to Closely Track the Performance of Worldwide GDP Growth
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Global IC Market to Closely Track the Performance of Worldwide GDP Growth

　　IC Insights expects annual global IC market growth rates to closely track the performance of worldwide GDP growth. In the recently released The McClean Report 2016, IC Insights forecasts 2.7% global GDP growth for 2016, only marginally ahead of what is considered to be the recession threshold of 2.5% growth.　　In many areas of the world, local economies have slowed. For example, economic growth in China slipped below 7% in 2015. China, which is the leading market for personal computers, digital TVs, smartphones, new commercial aircraft, and automobiles, is forecast to lose more economic momentum in 2016. Its GDP is forecast to increase 6.3% in 2016, which continues a slide in that country’s annual GDP growth rate that started in 2010.　　While the U.S. economy is far from perfect, it is currently one of the most significant positive driving forces in the worldwide economy. The U.S. accounted for 22% of worldwide GDP in 2015. U.S. GDP is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2016. Given its size and strength, the U.S. economy greatly influences overall global GDP growth. An improving employment picture and the low price of oil are factors that should positively impact the U.S. economy in 2016.　　In addition, IC Insights nothed that a stable IC pricing environment is expected through 2020 due in part to fewer suppliers in various IC markets (i.e., DRAM, MPU, etc.), lower capital spending as a percent of sales, and no significant new IC manufacturers entering the market in the future (the surge of Chinese IC companies that entered the market in the early 2000’s is assumed to be the last large group of newcomers.　　Regarding semiconductor industry capital spending, IC Insights forecasts semiconductor capital spending will decrease 1% in 2016. Spending on flash memory and within the foundry segment is forecast to increase in 2016 but spending for all other market segments, including DRAM, is expected to decline.　　Semiconductor capital spending as a percent of sales is forecast to remain in the mid- to high-teens range through 2020. IC Insights believes spending at this level will not lead to an industry-wide overcapacity during the forecast period.　　Semiconductor R&D spending increased 1% in 2015 to new record high of $56.4 billion. Intel dedicated $12.1 billion to R&D in 2015 (24.0% of sales) to remain the largest semiconductor R&D spender in 2015. R&D spending at TSMC, the industry’s biggest pure-play foundry rose 10% in 2015, ranking it 5th among top R&D spenders.　　TSMC joined the group of top-10 R&D spenders for the first time in 2010, giving an indication of just how important TSMC and other pure-play foundries have become to the IC industry with continuing technological progress.
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Release time：2017-02-11 00:00 reading：1432 Continue reading>>

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